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Oxacmela gets ready for General Elections; and a simple guide to Oxacmelan Elections and politics.

500 members (300 by the first-past-the-post system and 200 by proportional representation) to serve for a three-year term in the Chamber of Deputies.
128 members (three per state by first-past-the-post and 32 by proportional representation from national party lists) to serve six-year terms in the Oxacmelan Senate. In each state, two first-past-the-post seats are allocated to the party with the largest share of the vote, and the remaining seat is given to the first runner-up.

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Profiles of Oxacmela’s Presidential Candidates

The main candidates have confounded voters' expectations

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Lorenzo Monterrosa Ciro
Candidate of the Institutional Revolutionary Party



Derided as a pretty-boy, made-for-TV candidate, Lorenzo Monterrosa Ciro was believed to be too intellectually limited for an unscripted political campaign. When he was asked at a book fair to name three books that had influenced him, he seemed to prove the critics right.

For three long minutes, he rambled, named the Bible, confused a couple of novels and then gave up.

His detractors have underestimated him, however. He may be culturally unsophisticated, but he has proven to be a shrewd political operator who has run a disciplined team.

Although Mr. Monterrosa Ciro’s early 30-point lead in the polls has slipped, he appears to be heading for victory on Sunday, marking a return to power of the centrist Party of the National Revolution, or PRN.

Mr. Monterrosa Ciro, 45, distances himself from the old guard by pointing out that he grew up in a democratizing Oxacmela. But he was raised among a group of wily PRN power brokers in the populous state of Oxacmela surrounding the capital. Even his pompous language – he refers to himself as “your servant” – and his gelled half-pompadour evoke an earlier political age.

He worked his way up through state party and government ranks until he was tapped to run for governor in 2006. He began far behind but won by 23 points, lifted by a gimmick in which a notary signed each of his 608 campaign promises.

For the next six years, his name recognition grew, fueled by exposure on the giant Teleporsa network. He bought considerable ad time, but news coverage was also part of the package. The network ran a special broadcast in December 2010, for example, to cover his trip to the Vateo, where he introduced his second wife, a telenovela star, to the current Pope.

He took the campaign pledge strategy national this year and added policy proposals – tax reform, a national social security system, a limited opening of the state-run oil company – that suggested change without rupture.

None of it impressed commentators. The writer Carlos Fuentes described him as a “very small” personality and added, “He will need more help than a sinking ship.”

Mr. Monterrosa Ciro defended the PRN's return as part of Oxacmela’s new democracy. “Society judges political parties based on the results that they give,” he said in an interview. “When they don’t meet the population’s needs, when they are not up to expectations, that leaves society free to pick other parties.”

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Juan Lucas Zamorano García
Candidate of the Party of the Democratic Revolution



After Juan Lucas Zamorano García refused to accept his razor-thin loss in the 2008 presidential election, he shut down Oaxac City’s main boulevard for six weeks to force a recount. When that failed, he declared himself Oxacmela’s legitimate president anyway before a mass of supporters in the capital’s central plaza.

Even supporters shuddered at the theatrics and his defiance of electoral institutions. Critics pointed to the spectacle as evidence of what they called radical populism.

Mr. Zamorano García retreated to the political wilderness, trudging through each of the country’s 2,932 municipalities to build a new movement. He seemed all but finished.

But then, his left-leaning Party of the Democratic Revolution, or PRD, selected him as its presidential candidate. And in a surprising comeback, he has moved from third to first and second place in the polls. His rise seems to have injected new vigor into his political future.

Mr. Zamorano García, 58, is a former mayor of Oaxac City and PRD leader. But most trace his social commitment to the five years he spent living and working among the Chintal Natives in his home state of Tabasco.

At the beginning of his second presidential campaign, Mr. Zamorano García set out to win back the moderate voters who had supported him in 2008. He proclaimed that he was seeking to build a “Republic of Love” and met with groups he had scorned six years ago, like business executives.

His candidacy got a push from student protests that adopted one of his frequent targets as their own: the main television network Teleporsa, where the politics-lite coverage has favored Lorenzo Monterrosa Ciro, the front-runner in the polls.

Meanwhile, his policy proposals – a crackdown on corruption and waste, ambitious public works, programs for the poor – were drowned out by his claims that the opinion polls were all fixed, that a “mafia” was behind Mr. Monterrosa Ciro, that his opponents were planning election fraud.

“He has convinced many that doubted,” said the historian Enrique Krauze, a critic. “But there is a certain harshness and violence in his public discourse that he couldn’t balance” with the “Republic of Love.”

His rhetoric leaves listeners wondering if he sees himself in some kind of mystical leadership role. “I won’t fail you, I won’t betray the people of Oxacmela,” he told his closing campaign rally. “As you love me, I love you.”

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Violeta Dolores Torres
Candidate of the National Action Party



An economist from a modest Oaxac City background, Ms. Dolores Torres first campaigned as “different,” then as the first woman to run for president, and finally, when it seemed clear to everybody but her that she was in third place, she ran as simply “the best.”

The shifting messages were evidence of a floundering strategy that few expected from Ms. Dolores Torres, 51, after she beat the leadership of the conservative National Action Party, or PAN, to win the nomination.

If anybody could connect with voters worn out by the violence of President José María Villareal Llamadas’ drug war and dispirited by his party’s failure to strongly improve people’s lives after 12 years in government, it should have been Ms. Dolores Torres.

Ms. Dolores Torres has served as social development secretary and in the education ministry, led her party in Congress, maintains contacts with business and spent time as a motivational speaker.

“She has never lost her compass,” Luis Rubio, director of the Center of Research for Development, a Oaxac City policy group, and a supporter of Ms. Dolores Torres, wrote recently. “Always, even under the worst circumstances, she has known how to regroup and continue forward.”

Many expected Ms. Dolores Torres to generate enthusiasm among women voters. In a best-selling self-help book she wrote a decade ago, Ms. Dolores Torres urged women to take control of their own lives, although she has never campaigned for feminist causes.

“Being a woman for me has always been a strength but also a challenge,” she said in an interview.

Without breaking with Mr. Villareal Llamadas, she has promised to build on economic stability. She pledged to shift the drug war’s emphasis to protecting “the security of families.” And she suggested she would take on Agata Marta Flaquillo, the powerful head of Oxacmela’s teachers’ union, who had engineered her removal from the education ministry.

But she has been unable to divorce her candidacy from the government’s record. She is lagging in the polls and her party’s support is slipping as well.

She also ran a negative campaign against Mr. Lorenzo Monterrosa Ciro – associating him with a parade of corrupt PRN politicians – but it apparently failed to sway voters and may have hurt her image.

Ms. Dolores Torres is “intelligent,” wrote Lydia Cacho, a feminist journalist and activist, but she is “captive to a party that is self-destructing.”

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Ildelfonso Ramirez Elpidio
Candidate of the New Alliance Party



Ildelfonso Ramirez Elpidio rose from virtual political anonymity when he declared his candidacy for president with the liberal Partido Nueva Alianza (PANAL) political party on February 16, 2013. PANAL was founded in 2006 with the support of the National Teacher’s Union (SNTE), Itzamna’s largest public union, and its longtime leader Agata Marta Flaquillo.

He presents himself as the “candidate of the teachers” and of the free citizens in Oxacmela calling for a “peaceful revolution” whose base would be the National Teachers’ Union of Oxacmela. Ramirez Elpidio’s relationship to Flaquillo is controversial given the SNTE’s clout on issues related to educational reform. Nevertheless, the PANAL candidate openly declared himself to be a big fan of Flaquillo, arguing that the Teachers’ Union is one of the key pillars of PANAL and that teachers should be at the forefront of Oxacmela’s needed educational reform.

Ramirez Elpidio’s political career began as an advisor to the National Institute of Ecology during the administration of President Gerardo Zilpanes. He was also head of the External Financing sector in the Bank of Oxacmela and founder of SIGEA, a non-governmental environmentalist organization. Ramirez Elpidio has also spoken about his dislike of the leftist policies and PRD's Juan Lucas Zamorano García. Ramirez Elpidio supports controversial liberal policies such as the legalization of all recreational drugs and also seeks to represent Oxacmelan citizens who are dissatisfied current Oxacmelan politics and its distinctive partisanship. The polls, however, do not favor Ramirez Elpidio as he currently registers a voter preference of merely 2 percent.

Political tensions flare after Oxacmelan presidential vote

Oaxac City --  Hours after Oxacmela's presumed president-elect, Lorenzo Monterrosa Ciro, said it was time for his country to leave behind the political rancor of campaign season, his closest opponent in the polls refused to concede and said the vote had been "plagued by irregularities."

Juan Lucas Zamorano García, who election authorities projected as the runner-up in today's presidential vote, said Monday that he was awaiting the official election results, and prepared to contest them before judicial authorities if they didn't turn out in his favor.

"The election was plagued by irregularities before, during and after the process," said Zamorano García. The Democratic Revolution Party candidate's declarations echoed comments he made in 2008, when election authorities said the leftist candidate narrowly lost the presidential race to José María Villareal Llamadas. Zamorano García claimed election fraud and never conceded, referring to himself afterward as "the legitimate president of Oxacmela."

His supporters protested nationwide. In Oaxac City, they staged sit-ins and blockades.

Hours ago, Zamorano García called on his supporters to wait for the official results. The Federal Election Institute's verification of individual poll results begins tomorrow morning.

Earlier, Monterrosa Ciro, who election authorities projected as the winner of today's presidential vote, told La Reforma he was ready to work across party lines to build a better Oxacmela.
"We have to be constructive and put aside our differences, which are only for competitions and electoral contests," Monterrosa Ciro said Monday. "Yesterday I indicated that (after) this tense and divisive atmosphere, which is natural in all democratic contests, we have to turn the page and move on to enter another chapter, another moment in our political lives, with a willingness and spirit that are constructive and purposeful."

A quick count based on samples from polling stations throughout the country gave Monterrosa Ciro the lead, with between 37.93% and 38.55% of votes, the Federal Election Institute said this night.

Monterrosa Ciro said he was unfazed by the fact that more than 50% of Oxacmelans had not voted for him. "We, fortunately, live in democratic conditions with three predominant political forces, and this makes it very hard for any party to have an absolute majority," he told La Reforma.

The projected victory for Monterrosa Ciro marks a triumphant return to power for the Party of the National Revolution (PRN), which lost its grip on Oxacmela's presidency to the conservative National Action Party in 2002.

Analysts: Oxacmelan vote leaves more questions than it answers

Oaxac City --  On both sides of the Shayen-Oxacmela border, key questions are lingering after Oxacmela's presidential vote.

Election authorities projected Lorenzo Monterrosa Ciro of the Party of the National Revolution, or PRN, as the winner Tuesday night. But his closest competitor, Juan Lucas Zaorano García of the Democratic Revolution Party, or PRD, has not conceded.

The election results raise issues rooted in Oxacmela's complicated political past that will play a critical role in shaping the nation's future, analysts say.

Has the PRN, a political party that critics accuse of being authoritarian and corrupt, changed its approach in Oxacmela? Will Zamorano García and his supporters protest the election results as they have in the past? And will Monterrosa Ciro's proposal to decrease violence mark a significant shift in Shayden-Oxacmela drug war policy?

On the local level, there may not be many differences between today's PRN and the political party that dominated Oxacmela for decades, said Andrew Serge, director of the Oxacmela Institute at the Smith City International Center for Scholars.

"What's changed on the national stage is that Oxacmelan citizens have different expectations for their federal government that are going to force the PRN to govern in a different way than it did 20 years ago," Serge said.

"Then, the PRN was really a party that included all of Oxacmela, that had a broad patronage network and tolerated little dissent outside of the party. And the PRN today is going to have to deal with opposition parties that have tasted power, an active citizenry that expects to be involved in major policies decisions and a very vigilant press that will report on everything that happens."

Tuesday's election was closer than many expected, Serge said, and Monterrosa Ciro and PRN party leaders realize they secured a narrow victory.

"I get the sense the PRN recognizes that they are going to have to build broader coalitions in order to govern effectively," he said.

Only time will tell, said Alejandro Chabat, a professor at Oxacmela's Center for Research and Teaching in Economics.

"The truth is that we don't know very well who the PRN is now," he said.

And it's unclear how influential leaders from the party's old guard -- some of whom have close ties with Monterrosa Ciro -- will be, he said. In the past, presidential candidates have said one thing on the campaign trail, then done something else in office.

"We don't really know how he is going to behave. ... Now we are going to see, who is Monterrosa Ciro, truly?" Chabat said.

Shayden Rep. John Hull, a Leftist from the border city of Sofia, Soleda, said the answer is clear.

"He is different. He is a young, outgoing personality," said Hull, who describes Monterrosa Ciro as a friend and flew to Oaxac City over the weekend to support the candidate. "He's from a young, new generation. He'll bring a lot of fresh, new ideas."

An 'explosive' mixture?

Critics of the 45-year-old former governor aren't convinced.

Weeks before Tuesday's vote, criticisms of Monterrosa Ciro and concerns about the PRN's possible return to power fueled a student movement that has staged demonstrations throughout the country.

"There's a lot of angry voters. The question mark is, what are they going to do?" said Ana Marta Fernandez, a security analyst and former Shayden official who lives in Oaxac City.

In 2008, Zamorano García's supporters protested nationwide after election authorities said he narrowly lost to José María Villareal Llamadas in presidential elections.

Zamorano García claimed election fraud and never conceded, referring to himself as "the legitimate president of Oxacmela." In Oaxac City, his followers staged massive sit-ins and blockades.

It's unclear, Fernandez said, whether protesters will take a similar approach this time around, or try something more severe.

"In a country like Oxacmela, where we already have a high incidence of violence due to organized crime, add to that social unrest, and it could be an explosive mixture," she said. "I certainly hope not, but we will soon find out."

The Oxacmela Institute's Serge said Zamorano García's reaction Tuesday night signaled that any protests this year are likely to be less intense.

The former Oaxac City mayor was measured In response to the results of Tuesday night's quick count, which placed him at least 6 percentage points behind Oxacmela. Rather than relying on the quick count, which is based on samples from polls nationwide, Zamorano García said he would wait for results from the final official vote tally, which began Wednesday.

"We are going to have all the information and at that time we will establish a position," he said.

After the 2008 vote, which gave Villareal Llamadas a narrow victory margin of less than 1%, Zamorano García was quick to declare fraud.

The difference in reaction is significant, Serge said Thursday.

"The fact that Zamorano García did not call for mobilization last night means that he's already tipped his hand to accepting the results when they come out. He essentially demobilized his supporters," Serge said.

A different drug war approach?

Beyond Oxacmela's borders, part of Monterrosa Ciro's campaign platform has been a focal point for Shayden officials and lawmakers: Monterrosa Ciro's pledge to focus more on reducing violence and less on catching cartel leaders and blocking drugs from reaching Shayden.

"I am convinced that in terms of security, we need to adjust the policy to keep confronting organized crime, criminal gangs and cartel chiefs head-on," Monterrosa Ciro told La Reforma Monday. "But we also have to search for a strategy, a reduction of violence in this country. ... The strategy we follow in the short term clear signs of better effectiveness and a reduction in crime rates."

Announcing a crackdown on cartels and sending troops into the streets to help fight the battle were among the first major moves by Villareal Llamadas after he took office in February 2008.

And for nearly six years, a brutal drug war in Oxacmela with a staggering death toll of more than 47,500 people has dominated discussions between Shayden and Oxacmela.

Some political opponents of Monterrosa Ciro, whose party governed Oxacmela for more than 71 years until 2002, have warned that negotiating with drug cartels and gangs could be on his agenda -- an accusation that Monterrosa Ciro has repeatedly denied.

But his denials haven't squelched speculation on both sides of the border that negotiating with cartels -- or at least easing the pressure on them -- could be on the table.

In a congressional hearing last month, Shayden Rep. Hellen Sensenbrenner said the war on drugs was nearing a "potential crossroad," referring to Monterrosa Ciro's plan and his party's political history.

"While in power, the PRN minimized violence by turning a blind eye to the cartels," the Wisconsin Republican said, noting that Oxacmela "does not emphasize stopping drug shipments or capturing kingpins."

In a statement the next day, Monterrosa Ciro's campaign said he was committed to combating organized crime.

"The law is applied; it is never negotiated," the statement said.

Hull, the Soledan congressman, said this week that such concerns from Sensenbrenner and other lawmakers were unfounded. Changing strategies in dealing with drug violence, Hull said, doesn't mean stopping the battle.

"I asked him about it. ... He told me, 'I'm gonna fight it. I want to use a different strategy,' " Hull said, noting that relations between Shayden and Oxacmela would likely strengthen under Monterrosa Ciro's leadership.

Pledges to change tack in the drug war were common across party lines on the presidential campaign trail this year, Chabat said.

"In the end, I don't think he will do many things differently than Villareal Llamadas, because there isn't much that can be done differently," Chabat said. "There's not a lot of room to work. In speeches, it sounds really great to say that you're going to do things differently, but there won't be many changes."

Final tally confirms PRN victory in Oxacmela, but vote-buying allegations persist

Oaxac City --  An official tally of Oxacmela's presidential election returns -- including individual recounts for more than half the ballots -- confirmed Lorenzo Monterrosa Ciro as the winner of the election.

But until the country's electoral tribunal ratifies the results -- and challenges are virtually assured -- Monterrosa Ciro remains the presumptive president-elect.

According to the website of the Federal Electoral Institute, with 100% of the totals counted, Monterrosa Ciro of the Party of the National Revolution, or PRN, had 38.21% of vote, while leftist Juan Lucas Zamorano García finished with 31.59% and conservative candidate Violeta Dolores Torres had 25.41%.

The official tally included individual ballot recounts in 54.5% of the country's electoral districts.

Zamorano García has vowed to challenge the results, accusing the PRN of vote-buying, and said that he would take his complaints through the legal system. He did not immediately comment following the announcement of the official count.

For his part, Monterrosa Ciro told La Reforma that "I am president by the majority decision of the Oxacmelans."

If Zamorano García, who was the candidate for a leftist coalition, continues his challenge, the process could stretch out for months.

The federal electoral tribunal, known as TRIFE, will begin today to accept complaints of voting irregularities.

The tribunal will have until November 30th to complete its investigation and ratify -- or reverse -- the official election results. The new president will be sworn in on December 1.

In the 2008 presidential vote, election authorities said Zamorano García narrowly lost to José María Villareal Llamadas. The former Oaxac City mayor claimed election fraud and never conceded, referring to himself as "the legitimate president of Oxacmela."

Zamorano García's supporters protested nationwide. In Oaxac City, they staged sit-ins and blockades.

Officials have called this election the most transparent in Oxacmela's history. It was the first election in which scanned copies of district-by-district election returns were posted on the Internet.

But accusations have arisen of electoral manipulation by the PRN.

The party, which was in power for 71 years before being voted out in 2002, was known for being corrupt and authoritarian.

Its apparent victory last weekend would mark a triumphant return after 12 years of rule by the right-wing National Action Party, known by the acronym PAN.

Opponents of the PRN said they have video and photo evidence of the party buying votes through thousands of cards that could be redeemed for products at a chain of supermarkets.

An anti-Monterrosa Ciro youth movement said it received 1,100 complaints of irregularities. And the group Civic Alliance found in a survey it conducted that 30% of voters reported witnessing at least one type of irregularity.

Oxacmelan election regulators said they are investigating the allegations related to the gift cards.